A Ray of Hope in Lebanon

Will it last? The longevity of the 60-day ceasefire agreement that came into effect just 3 days ago (27 November 2024) is undoubtedly on the minds of millions around the world. It puts a pause on one of the most violent episodes in the history of the South Lebanon conflict involving Israel and the Lebanese Shia Islamist militant group, the Hezbollah. Today, we examine how the diplomatic breakthrough, described by Joe Biden as “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities” will shape the uncertain future that lies ahead in this corner of the Middle East. 

The Axis of Resistance 

The Axis of Resistance. Image Credit: FT

In retaliation for the Hamas attacks on Oct 7 last year, Israel has launched a deadly invasion of the Gaza Strip with the aim of dismantling Hamas entirely. Naturally, the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” - a loose anti-Israel/US coalition that counts Yemen’s Houthis and the Syrian government among its members - joined the conflict in support of Hamas, igniting fears that the conflagration would spill over and destabilise the entire Middle East. Enter Hezbollah. Founded largely with Iranian funding and support in 1982 to repel the 2nd Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah initiated daily rocket attacks primarily targeted at Northern Israel (Galilee) in support of the Islamic Resistance Movement (also known as Hamas) in Gaza. A significant escalation followed the pager explosions across Lebanon in September as well as an airstrike that led to the death of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and other senior commanders in a Beirut suburb that housed the group’s headquarters. Concerns over a potential attack launched by Hezbollah on northern Israel led to a series of unprecedented airstrikes across Lebanon aimed at various Hezbollah targets as the IDF sought to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon and allow the safe return of some 60,000 evacuees displaced by rocket fire back to their homes. This eventually culminated in a full-on ground invasion of Lebanon on October 1. According to the Lebanese health military, almost 4000 have been killed in Lebanon since October last year (the published death toll does not distinguish between militants and civilians). 

A Fragile Truce 

Image Credit: Henrik Pettersson, CNN

Brokered by the US and France, the truce calls for a gradual withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanese territory beyond the UN-demarcated Blue Line as well as the retreat of Hezbollah to north of the Litani river some 40km from the Israel-Lebanon border during the 60-day pause in hostilities. The Lebanese Armed Forces, a neutral party uninvolved in the ongoing conflict, is expected to deploy thousands of troops to supervise Hezbollah’s withdrawal and ensure that the militant group does not regroup or rearm itself in the border regions. 

The IDF has decimated the leadership of terrorist group Hezbollah.

Image Credit: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Israel

Given the greatly weakened state of Hezbollah, it is unsurprising that Israel has the upper hand in negotiations this time round. Crucially, Israel retains the right to resume defensive strikes in the event of a resumption in Hezbollah activity while previous Hezbollah demands of a Gaza truce as a key precondition to a ceasefire were also dropped. However, the bulk of the text is merely an echo of the 2 decade old UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which will be examined below. 

UNSC Resolution 1701 and UNIFIL 

Central to the ceasefire is UNSC Resolution 1701, a document that brought an end to the 2006 armed conflict where Israel invaded Lebanon in retaliation for a Hezbollah cross-border raid.  Similar wording remains in the recent truce: the Lebanese government is expected to ensure that the south of the Litani river is free from any military positions or assets except that of its own military and that of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). UNIFIL will also remain deployed to monitor the ceasefire process and chair the “tripartite mechanism”, a forum for the IDF and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to discuss dispute resolution and de-escalation. However, the reality is far from rosy. Despite having the largest peacekeeping contingent ever in UN history, UNIFIL is widely seen as a toothless force that has mostly failed to meet its objectives as stipulated in UNSCR 1701. 

At its core, UNIFIL was conceptualised as a peacekeeping force under Chapter VII of the UN Charter but eventually UNSCR 1701 limited its mandate to Chapter VI. The key difference is the use of military force - UNIFIL may only use force in self-defense and is restricted from using military force to confront violations of UNSCR 1701. Without an effective enforcement mechanism, UNIFIL has been subject to harassment and abuse from all parties of the conflict. Far from being rolled back across southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has only entrenched itself and greatly expanded its presence while facing virtually no consequences for its intransigence in the years since. For instance, the latest UNIFIL quarterly report noted a worrying increase in the number of incidents in which Hezbollah members and its allies denied UNIFIL access to various locations in the region. Worse still, shocking allegations have emerged suggesting Hezbollah members were able to successfully bribe UNIFIL peacekeepers to use the latter’s security cameras and monitor IDF movements. Israel also faces condemnation for allegedly firing at UNIFIL positions and injuring personnel and has repeatedly demanded the removal of UNIFIL forces since the beginning of its invasion in October. Notably, tripartite meetings have also ceased in recent months. 

Understandably, major reforms are required to maintain the credibility of UNIFIL moving forward. Given the Lebanese government’s fragile, cash-strapped state (it has yet to recover from a crippling economic crisis in 2019 and the local currency has lost up to 98% of its value in the 5 years since), it is unsurprising that the LAF is neither willing nor able to enforce UNSCR 1701 in tandem with UNIFIL. Absent a stronger mandate for UNIFIL, a plausible solution is donor funds from the international community to be directed to support the LAF in terms of capacity-building. A more durable peace in Lebanon would also involve greater scrutiny of the Lebanese government’s obligations to rid southern Lebanon of Hezbollah positions and enforce the demilitarised zone. 

Merely hours after the truce, both sides have accused each other of violations as Israel launched sporadic airstrikes targeting a rocket storage facility that it claimed to have breached ceasefire conditions. Even so, a steady stream of displaced Lebanese civilians made their way south in the hours after the truce took effect, attempting to return to their homes amidst the uneasy new normal. For now, the tenuous truce has given rise to a new ray of hope.

*As the situation remains highly fluid, information within this article is taken to be accurate as of 30 November 2024.

References

1. Al Jazeera. (2024, November 27). How and why UNIFIL failed to keep peace in Lebanon. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/11/27/how-and-why-unifil-failed-to-keep-peace-in-lebanon

2. CNN. (2024, November 27). Visual guide: Map of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/27/middleeast/visual-guide-map-israel-hezbollahs-ceasefire-intl-dg/index.html

3. France24. (2024, November 27). UN resolution 1701 is the linchpin of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire: Will it hold in 2024? https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241127-un-resolution-1701-is-the-linchpin-of-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-will-it-hold-in-2024

4. The Guardian. (2024, November 30). Nabatieh, Lebanon, starts to rebuild as ceasefire takes effect. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/30/nabatieh-lebanon-starts-to-rebuild-as-ceasefire-takes-effect

5. The Global Observatory. (2024, October 31). What is behind Israel’s deliberate attacks on UN peacekeepers in Lebanon? Interview with Karim Makdisi. https://theglobalobservatory.org/2024/10/what-is-behind-israels-deliberate-attacks-on-un-peacekeepers-in-lebanon-interview-with-karim-makdisi/

6. NPR. (2024, November 28). Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon ceasefire: Middle East crisis. https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis

7. Stimson Center. (2024, November 27). What is UNIFIL's future amidst a new Hezbollah-Israel war? https://www.stimson.org/2024/what-is-unifils-future-amidst-a-new-hezbollah-israel-war/

8. Times of Israel. (2024, November 27). Full text: The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal. https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal/