Reform UK’s Downfall – A Shift Away From The Far-Right?

Roy Tio
22 hours ago
9 min read

Cover image by Zachary Quek

Leader of Reform UK, Nigel Farage (Image credit: PA Media) — Leader of Reform UK, Nigel Farage. Image credit: PA Media

United States, 2024 – Trump’s historic win of the US Presidency, being the first president-elect since George W. Bush in 2004 to win both the electoral college and the popular vote, served as a key milestone in the global transition towards far-right politics – marked by immense support for anti-immigration and ultranationalist policies. Elsewhere, the similarly-positioned Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Party achieved stunning results sweeping East Germany and becoming the official Opposition Party within Germany’s Parliament, the Bundestag.

These major victories for far-right political movements across the western hemisphere increasingly indicate one thing: A global shift in ideology towards populist, nationalistic politics.

Even within the United Kingdom (UK), such a trend used to hold true up until recent months, with far-right political party Reform UK gathering a tremendous wave of support after the recent 2024 General Elections, becoming the leading political party in terms of popularity. Particularly, the shift in support was exacerbated by the breakdown of the traditional 2-party system found in most mature democracies, after both of the traditional establishment parties had presented their ineptitude for modern governance.

This perceived incompetence was most evident within the right-wing Conservative government, whose rapid rotation between 3 Prime Ministers prior to the General Elections highlighted their inability to maintain stability, both within their party and for the country at large. Further, the image of holding the shortest-reigning Prime Minister in Britain’s history who brought the economy to the brink of recession within just 45 days certainly did not help the Conservatives’ case for re-election.

Shortest-serving British PM Liz Truss announcing her resignation, 20 October 2022. (Image credit: Prime Minister’s Office) — Shortest-serving British PM Liz Truss announcing her resignation, 20 October 2022. Image credit: Prime Minister’s Office

Yet, not everything has been smooth sailing either for the opposing left-wing Labour Party, who had recently received a resounding majority of the seats within the House of Commons, one of the Houses within the UK's Parliament. Scandalous appointments such as that of Peter Mandelson, previously chosen by Labour for the key diplomatic role of British Ambassador to the United States before his associations with infamous American pedophile Jeffrey Epstein were exposed last September, further undermine Labour’s credibility. Combined with the multitude of policy U-turns by Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, it is of little wonder that Labour’s favourability in the public’s eye has significantly worsened since their landslide electoral victory.

The Rise of Reform UK

One might rightly wonder, then, regarding the circumstances in which Reform attained its meteoric rise – After all, voters do not magically gravitate towards a party just because the others are falling apart.

Reform’s existence came into the media’s limelight shortly after the cost-of-living crisis caused by the Conservatives’ economic policies in December 2022, with populist politician and commentator Nigel Farage leading the publicity push, through the party’s announcement that it would stand a full slate of candidates in the 2024 General Elections. Though Farage had resigned as leader of Reform in 2021 to focus on his media career, he would return as leader in June 2024, right before the elections on the 4th of July.

Akin to Trump in the US, Reform’s popularity and support largely hails from the charisma brought about by its strongman leader, Farage; Though previously relatively unknown, Farage achieved his claim to fame through his leadership of the United Kingdom Independence Party through the infamous 2016 Brexit Referendum (or the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum), in which he, alongside with future Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson, successfully campaigned against the government and narrowly brought victory for those wishing to leave the European Union (EU). With both Farage and Johnson being populists in their own right, much effort was put into publicity for the ‘Leave’ campaign, positioning themselves as central figures in the fight against the ‘Remain’ government and voices for the people.

‘Vote Leave Bus’, prominent symbol of the ‘Leave’ campaign during the Brexit Referendum. Image credit: Getty Images

Farage also held a long and eventful career as Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for South East England from 1999 until the UK left the EU in 2020, being a representative within EU’s Parliament. During his time, he carried out many stunts for attention in-line with his Eurosceptic (anti-EU) stance, such as likening a former Belgian Prime Minister to a “low-grade bank clerk” in 2010, or even insulting fellow MEPs for never having done “a proper job” in their lives immediately after the 2016 Brexit Referendum.

Beyond Farage’s personal popularity, Reform has also capitalised on its radical policy suggestions in the face of failures by the government, advocating a reform of the systems. In particular, within their main focus of immigration, Reform pledges to “review all asylum claims” from the past five years should they form the government, threatening about 400,000 immigrants with deportation – A position deemed to be ‘the best’ by 32% of those surveyed, far beyond any other party.

The Stagnation of Reform

Not everything has been sunshine and roses for Reform, however, most evident from its recent losses in the 2026 House of Commons Gorton and Denton by-election to the Green Party and the 2025 Senedd (Welsh Parliament) by-election for the Caerphilly constituency to Plaid Cymru. Despite polls suggesting close battles or even a Reform lead within those regions, the results ultimately spoke for themselves with an over 10 percentage point win over Reform in both by-elections from the respective winners.

With polling clearly a matter of large importance for Reform, Farage has gone out of his way to personally attack renowned pollster, YouGov, with accusations of deception and under-reporting Reform’s popularity. Though polling numbers by YouGov have picked up in the month since to show Reform at a 10-point lead nationally, it'd be impossible to declare an absolute advantage for Reform in the elections given their very recent by-election losses in similar circumstances, showing a high likelihood of support not translating into votes.

Infographic showing Reform’s polling compared to Conservatives (Blue), Greens (Green)and Labour (Red). Image credit: Reform UK — Infographic showing Reform’s polling compared to Conservatives (Blue), Greens (Green) and Labour (Red). Image credit: Reform UK

Critics also claim that Reform has likely “reached its peak” in terms of popularity, with a couple key factors compounding at the forefront to constitute this belief.

An Overreliance on Farage

Simply put, although Farage’s charisma as a strongman has been one of the main cornerstones of Reform’s success, it may soon contribute instead towards Reform’s downfall after the multitude of controversies Farage has personally found himself within.

For instance, Farage's actions during his eight years spent within the private school Dulwich College had been picked up by the news cycle last December when twenty-six former students and teachers signed an open letter to The Guardian alleging the existence of racist and anti-semitic acts, with a Jewish classmate further claiming egregious anti-semitic remarks had been made against him such as “Hitler was right”.

From Farage’s side, he, along with the rest of Reform, “emphatically denies” the allegations while attempting to paint them as proof that the establishment was “using 50-year-old smears in a last act of desperation”. Yet, the issue for most does not lie in the actual words uttered by an edgy teenager in the 70s, but rather Farage’s perceived recalcitrant nature in denying those acts while pushing immigration policies in a similar vein – largely targeting minorities such that the United Kingdom would not become ‘an island of strangers’.

Politically, Farage finds himself deeply entangled with his counterpart in the US, Donald Trump, with his frequent pro-Trump stances alienating voters who are increasingly against Trump-style politics; With regard to the recent Iran War, after Farage initially campaigned for ‘the gloves to come off’ to send British support for the US in Iran, he suddenly made a U-turn after much outcry about the attack, both jeopardising his voter base and undermining his image as a principled strongman.

In these regards, Farage has gained notoriety and become increasingly unfavourable with the British public, worsening from a net approval rating of -27% last May to -39% in the previous month.

YouGov Tracker of Farage’s favourability over the years. Image credit: YouGov

For a party seen as being 73% reliant on Farage, these worsening ratings may prove a death knell for any realistic chances of forming the next government.

Rise of Alternative Parties

Whereas Reform prided itself on being a disruption between the Labour-Conservative rivalry of the past, it is now facing competition from similarly-positioned counterparts from all over the political spectrum, allowing one of its main demographics – young voters disillusioned with the establishment – even more choices in line with their actual political standing.

Within the House of Commons, the rising stars are usually seen to be the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats, with the former achieving unparalleled growth after the appointment of Zack Polanski as its leader last September, while the latter has been achieving stable growth with its moderate policies and publicity stunts under long-time leader Ed Davey. While support does not seem to be directly migrating from Reform towards these parties, the rise of a credible opposition in the Greens, who have even surpassed the Labour government in some polls, certainly poses a threat towards Reform.

New leader of the Greens, Zack Polanski, whose leadership led to rapid growth. Image credit: Christian Gamauf

This dynamic has led to the coining of the term “five-party system” to describe modern British politics, split between the traditional Conservative and Labour parties, along with the newer and more popular Reform, Green and Liberal-Democratic parties. With five viable choices, voters may find themselves less attracted towards the radical, far-right Reform UK.

Within the localised Parliaments of Scotland and Wales (Scottish Parliament and Senedd respectively), Reform faces extremely rigid competition in the form of Scottish National Party and the Plaid Cymru, both traditional establishment parties who have been around almost for a century, without any party-destroying controversies like the British parties. As previously mentioned in the Senedd by-election, in spite of Reform holding a vast advantage nationally, these specialised parties still hold a leg up in terms of reputation and trust, reducing chances of a sudden Reform sweep.

How will Reform fare?

The day of reckoning for Reform’s popularity and signal for its future outlook is rapidly approaching, with May 7th holding both the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary Elections and the 2026 Welsh Parliament (Senedd) Elections. In fact, it might be in a few days or even already over at the point in time that you’re reading this!

Reform remains optimistic of its chances in both elections, creating mass publicity posts over on its X account, along with calls for voters to head to the polls for Reform’s success. Though the elections currently seem to be anyone’s game in terms of gathering a majority, Reform and Farage certainly portray themselves as being assured of their chances, through repeated sharing of its successful local council candidates and optimistic polling figures.

One thing is for certain though: Labour, the current party of which Prime Minister Keir Starmer belongs, will likely suffer huge losses during these elections. Starmer’s favourability has sky-dived to a net rating of -48%, and its already diminished presence in Scotland and Wales may become near non-existent after these trials.

Thus, only one simple question remains:

Which party will take up the mantle of leadership next?

References

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