Ishiba's Legacy

Cover image by Nicole Lee

Shigeru Ishiba announces his resignation after the Liberal Democratic Party suffers a shock defeat at the July polls. Image credit: Toru Hanai/Pool via Reuters

He will be remembered for what he wasn’t, rather than what he was.

While the USA continues to show us all the slow and painful decline of American politics, the twenty-first century has not exactly been kind to the political scenes of most countries. So, moving aside from what’s been said time and time again, today we’ll focus on the brief tenure of Shigeru Ishiba, who will most likely be more easily forgettable than he already is once his successor (more on that later) steps up to the podium. Regardless of what he did and didn’t do, this short article will examine his time in office and potential legacy. 

To provide context, Shigeru Ishiba served as both the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) president and Prime Minister of Japan for about a year. This occurred shortly after the previous LDP leader and prime minister Fumio Kishida stepped down due to past controversies like the 2023-2024 slush fund scandal (where over 600 million yen in campaign funds had been squirreled away in illegal slush funds) which tanked his predecessor’s approval ratings. Ishiba’s 2024 victory was shocking; a combination of a long history of failed leadership bids that could be traced back to 2008, and his own unpopularity within his party due to his reputation as a “traitor” (owing to his willingness to criticise his own party). 

Despite the LDP distancing itself from politicians that were implicated in the slush fund scandal, the party faced its most disastrous defeat in the 2024 general elections since 2009, losing its majority in the Diet. While he was reelected as the prime minister of a minority government, this was the first time in 30 years that any Japanese prime minister required a runoff vote to succeed. Needless to say, this was a rather dismal start to his time in office. And possibly a prediction of what was to come, with the benefit of hindsight.

Ishiba’s time as prime minister saw him attempting to forge ties with former US President Biden, and current President Trump with the continued idea of strengthening cooperation. While this included promises of mutual cooperation and investment, one look at the USA’s foreign policy nowadays can probably tell you exactly how that attempt ended up.

Golden Age of US-Japan relations? Image credit: Stimson Centre

In February of 2025, Ishiba visited Trump; the former promising to raise Japan’s investment in the United States, while Trump offered military security assistance in return, agreeing on a so-called “new golden age” for US-Japan relations…which fell flat two months later when Trump announced 24% reciprocal tariffs on all Japanese goods. Huzzah. Needless to say, Ishiba later joined hands with China and South Korea to respond to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, rejecting the idea of directly negotiating with Trump. 

And yet, despite this strained relationship with the USA, Japan still adjusted its language on support for Ukraine from “strengthen” to “will maintain” support following the falling out between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Trump; a poor attempt at catering to both sides. While outspoken and somewhat confident, Ishiba seemed to try and minimise rocking the boat, backing down and retracting statements following backlash. It’s not surprising that he would take a rather neutral stance; most countries these days do the same to avoid being caught up in the ever-brewing struggle between superpowers. But to his fellow politicians, this was just another sign of weakness. 

Perhaps not the final nail in the coffin, but certainly one of the more major ones was the gift certificate scandal that occurred in March of 2025. The Asahi Shimbun newspaper revealed that maybe a dozen LDP members of parliament who were elected for the first time during the 2024 general election received gift certificates from Ishiba; claimed to be paid from his personal funds. Not that it mattered where the money came from; to the public and lawmakers, it looked like a thinly veiled bribe.

With rampant criticism and the further decline of the LDP, Ishiba finally announced his intention to resign as party president and prime minister on 7 September following pressure from his fellow lawmakers. An unsatisfying, yet somewhat fitting end to his time in office. While not a particularly controversial or explosive demise, Ishiba’s resignation could almost be predicted from the moment his time in office began. 

Quite different from certain other countries is the fact that Ishiba chose not to lean to either side when determining Japan’s domestic and foreign policies. And yet, by practicing a centrist’s approach to things, he antagonised both nationalist commenters and those who advocated for more radical change. Rather than gaining favour from both sides, as Ishiba might have intended, he chose to disappoint the nation as a whole. The past few years have seen a generation of individuals who desire to see things change, even if it means overturning the board. While maintaining a rather neutral approach might have worked a decade ago, such efforts simply fall flat today. 

While one can say (without exaggerating too much) that Ishiba’s time as prime minister was another page in Japan’s story of slow but certain decline over the years, one can only hope that his successor will be able to shrug off the legacy of their predecessors that he was unable to do so. Sanae Takaichi, the current president of the LDP (and now the country’s first female prime minister) has a rocky road ahead of her. 

Takaichi’s path, however, like those who came before her, seems to be rife with struggles from the very beginning. The abrupt withdrawal of the LDP’s coalition partner Komeito left the LDP with an even smaller minority in the Diet, and potentially an opposition realignment to oust the current ruling party from power. While a crisis was averted with a new coalition agreement inked with Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), the deal is at best an imperfect partnership as Ishin retains the right to realign with the opposition and vote Takaichi out of office should policy expectations fail to align. 

Described as an ultraconservative and nationalist, Sanae Takaichi's first policy speech after becoming prime minister reflects this: promising to prioritise Japan’s interests and shore up the problems that had contributed to the nation’s slow decline over the years. Interestingly enough, her foreign policy appears to be focused on regional stability despite these views, promoting friendships with countries like South Korea, China and the USA. Her actions have demonstrated her pragmatism; maintaining and improving international relations in a world that’s consistently teetering on the brink of falling apart. This is not entirely dissimilar from her predecessor’s approach, although to more noticeable success (for now). 

Ishiba’s failures do appear to be guiding Takaichi’s own actions in certain ways. Aiming to address Japan’s economic and domestic concerns is the first step; actually making good on these promises will be what the general public expect from her, and will serve to distance herself from Ishiba’s unimpressive legacy. Furthermore, she chose to avoid visiting the Yasukuni Shrine (which enshrines Japanese war criminals as well) during its autumn ritual despite consistent and understandably controversial visits before her election. This clearly demonstrates her ability to recognise the need for proper international relations and image as a prime minister. 

The pressure of this heavy title, the loss of a coalition partner of 26 years among other issues could cast a dark shadow over her time in office, leaving her a “lame duck” leader just as ineffective as her predecessors. If proven so, the political scene might even swing in favour of the opposition in the future; marking the closing chapter of the LDP’s long time in power. Which might be the thing needed to snap Japan out of its stagnation…but that’s a problem for the future. 

Regardless of her own desires and opinions pre-election, Takaichi has shown an acute awareness of how heavy her new crown is, and how the shadow of Ishiba’s own time in office will hang over her every move. Public frustration over past scandals and the shakiness of her ruling party’s ability to remain afloat closely follow her; it’s not surprising that her actions and declarations so far have (subtly or otherwise) been attempting to ease this pressure in any way possible. We can only wait and watch to see how things go. Shigeru Ishiba barely made a ripple while he was prime minister. But Sanae Takaichi will make waves that erase his legacy with ease. 

References

1. Chai, P. (2025, October 21). LDP, Nippon Ishin Coalition Agreement Locks in Takaichi’s Prime Minister Victory. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2025/10/ldp-nippon-ishin-coalition-agreement-locks-in-takaichis-prime-minister-victory/

2. Cimino-Isaacs, C. D., & Kitamura, K. H. (2025, September 17). U.S. Tariffs and the 2025 U.S.-Japan Framework Agreement. Congressional Research Service. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12608

3. Govella, K. (2025, October 6). Japan’s Response to Trump 2.0: Sustaining U.S. Ties, Strengthening International Partnerships. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-response-trump-20-sustaining-us-ties-strengthening-international-partnerships

4. Govella, K., Szechenyi, N., & Nakano, Y. (2025, September 8). Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Steps Down. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/japanese-prime-minister-ishiba-steps-down

5. Hasegawa, K. (2025, October 17). Takaichi sends offering to Yasukuni Shrine but will not visit. The Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/10/17/japan/politics/takaichi-yasukuni-skip/

6. Nakamura, K. (2025, October 10). Japan ruling party’s junior ally Komeito to end coalition after 26 years. Japan Wire by Kyodo News. https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/62561

7. Prusa, I. (2025). Political Scandal in Japan and the LDP Slush Fund Controversy. Japan Focus, 23. https://doi.org/10.1017/apj.2025.10017

8. Robinson, L. (2025, October 31). Understanding Takaichi Sanae: Sheila Smith on Japan’s First Female Prime Minister. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/potential-impact-takaichi-sanae-japans-first-female-prime-minister-conversation-dr-sheila

9. Semans, H. (2024, September 24). Why is Shigeru Ishiba so unpopular among his LDP peers? The Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/09/24/japan/politics/ishiba-shigeru-ldp-candidate-diet-hates-local-chapters-love/

10. Suzuki, K. (2025, October 22). Sanae Takaichi sees herself as the successor to Shinzo Abe. But changes in Japan’s politics present big challenges. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/sanae-takaichi-sees-herself-successor-shinzo-abe-changes-japans-politics-present-big

11. Tatsumi, Y. (2025, February 14). Trump and Ishiba Meet for the First Time—Success, Maybe? Stimson Center. https://www.stimson.org/2025/trump-and-ishiba-meet-for-the-first-time-success-maybe/

12. The Asahi Shimbun. (2025, March 21). Editorial: LDP seemingly doled out gift vouchers as a common practice. https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15676715

13. Yoichi, S. (2024, October 30). LDP Losses: October 2024 Japanese Election Ends the “Neo-1955 Setup.” Nippon.com. https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d01068/