Unboxing Our Economy: How Blind Boxes Changed the Way We Shop

Singapore’s largest Pop Mart store at ION Orchard getting a restock to meet its never-ending crowd. Image credits: Stacey Ngiam

When was the last time you bought or received a toy? Chances are, you answered: a blind box. Ever since K-pop star Lalisa Manoban from Blackpink shared her Labubu blind box collection in 2024, the world has seen an explosive rise in the craze for these mystery collectibles. In 2025 alone, China-based toy company Pop Mart projected over four billion USD in revenue. That may seem small next to tech giants like Apple, which makes under 400 billion annually, but for a company selling what is essentially just toys, it is a feat we can never imagine.

Blind boxes are making their mark on our economy, a growing force driving consumer purchases, particularly among youths and young adults. But what exactly is fueling this phenomenon? And what might it reveal about today’s global consumer culture?

To understand the appeal, we need to look back to where blind boxes came from. Blind boxes are sealed, opaque packages where their contents are a surprise, often containing a collectible item from a specific series. The concept dates back to the 1980s Japanese trend where supermarkets and department stores sold fukubukuro, or “lucky bags,” filled with an assortment of items as a way to clear leftover inventory. Over time, this evolved into the now-iconic gashapon machines, capsule dispensers that offer a random toy with each turn of the knob, and today, the blind box, designed and sold all over the world by various international companies.

While Gachapon can be found all over the world, a visit to a Gachapon shop with walls of machines is part of the quintessential Japanese experience. Image credits: Travel Pockets

Unboxing the trend

When blind boxes first gained traction due to Lalisa Manoban, the adorable “ugly” monster, Labubu from Kaising Lung’s The Monsters quickly became an icon. It became a signifier of individuality and self expression, a worldwide cultural movement to embrace what might not be conventionally pretty.

This, however, was only the start. The first version, the Exciting Macaron series, contained 6 unique colours of the toy keychain and 1 special version which was harder to get. But, 7 unique toys cannot be the only driver of the multimillion business. Once Pop Mart, the carrier of the Labubu series established an interest amongst consumers for blind boxes, they leveraged on this general interest and sought to appeal to customers through nostalgia-driven design. Beyond their pre-existing collections featuring independent artist-led IPs like The Monsters, Molly and Crybaby, many newer blind box collections draw from familiar childhood worlds like Disney and Pixar. Some of these IP series even merged their original designs with iconic characters. For example, the Crybaby and Molly collaborations with the Powerpuff Girls in 2024 resonated widely with audiences who grew up during the early 2000s, turning the figures into instant cultural callbacks. This allowed for a crossover appeal where a singular product was able to tap into both the IP and the Powerpuff Girl markets.

Pop Mart’s Crybaby character known for its iconic squarish, puffy face with tear drops at its cheeks now dolled up as Powerpuff Girl characters. Image credits: Pop Mart 

Here, blind box creators turn toys into unique collectibles encapsulating an adult's childhood. Unlike the usual toy economy where the main consumers are children, targeting adults allows companies to speak directly to the individuals with purchasing power to consume such products.

Perhaps what also aids this growth is the fact that each individual box is priced relatively low compared to other bigger ticket purchases. On average a blind box goes for around 20 to 35 SGD depending on design and size, which is equivalent to a good meal or an outfit. Purchasing a blind box thus feels like a harmless, low stakes cost for joy, rather than a material accumulation.

Beyond pulling at the heartstrings of our inner child, at the core of blind boxes is the psychological appeal of surprise. The Arousal Theory of Motivation suggests that people seek an optimal level of stimulation. The sealed box creates just enough tension and curiosity to produce that emotional spark. The excitement peaks in the moment just before the reveal, making the act of opening the box more emotionally charged than owning the figure itself. Here people do not just buy the toy but also that experience of answering their curiosity.

This anticipation is intensified by the brain’s dopamine system. When the outcome is uncertain, dopamine spikes during the expectation of reward rather than after the reward itself. Psychologists describe this as a variable ratio reward schedule, the same reinforcement pattern seen in gambling. Because one never knows when the desired figure will appear, each attempt feels meaningful. The thrill becomes self-sustaining.

Companies are fully aware of this cycle and are purposely designing their products to feed our hunger for more. They design collections with rare, low-probability figures and release limited series that rotate rapidly. The challenge of completing a set becomes a reason to continue purchasing. What begins as a nostalgic indulgence can shift into a routine, and for some, a habit that encourages repeated spending.

In essence, the blind box trend is basically a smart marketing tactic to turn toys into icons of childhood and culture. By placing these items as exchanging some money for joy, brands lower the barriers to purchase, luring you into the endless psychological loop of addiction where each purchase leads to the next. In fact many youths are well known to spend hundreds a month just on blind boxes, accumulating fancy displays of their prized collectibles.

Milo Singapore launched its own functional blind box series featuring recyclable bag plush pouches of local Singaporean favourites to go with their existing malt drink offering. Image credits: Milo Singapore 

The concept is so effective that F&B brands and other retailers have even launched their own rendition of blind boxes, turning their products into blind box styled freebies like plushies. The most iconic one would be the Milo “blind box” series in Singapore where Milo paired its usual malt drink offerings with a unique plush toy-recycling bag collectible featuring local favourites from a classic cup of milo to the local kaya toast and half boiled eggs, causing Singaporeans to hunt for milo packs islandwide just to get their hands on their desired collectible.

We are addicted: Ethical concerns

Clearly, consumers have now become addicted. Critics even compare this to gambling, think slot machines and poker cards. In fact, getting the collectible you want is pretty much the same psychological experience as buying the lottery ticket, where we bet our money in hopes of getting the desired collectible.

To combat this issue countries have begun exploring tighter controls surrounding blind boxes. Pop Mart’s home country China had begun tightening restrictions. In fact, since 2023, children under the age of 8 were banned from buying blind boxes, and those between the age of 8 to 18 could only do so with parental consent to prevent young individuals from falling prey to these psychological tactics. 

The Chinese government also went further to require all blind boxes to prominently publish the probabilities of obtaining rarer items, often seen as the 1/x mark on blind boxes. They also recommended a “pity scheme”, where companies could offer a guarantee of a specific item after a set number of tries, similar to the case of claw machines where customers usually get to directly take a toy after playing unsuccessfully for a set number of tries.

The 1/6 probability of getting each character in Pop Mart’s Big into Energy Labubu series is clearly marked on the box to ensure clarity. Image credit: Solis Depot

While no other country has officially taken such a tough stance since the boom of this industry in 2024, analysts point towards existing anti-gambling laws and urged for the need to extend such regulations to blind boxes as well. One such country is the European Union and their anti-loot box scheme which targets the use of loot boxes or blind boxes in online games. 

It is made evident that people are concerned about how the blind box economy is affecting consumers negatively. But governments may not be ready to curb blind boxes just yet given its growing economic relevance. Furthermore, it is still not apparent if this trend may die down soon. Governments may ultimately choose to wait the trend out and observe if there is a need to stifle the industry prematurely. 

An economical opportunity with a cautionary tale

Regardless of government regulations or not, the blind box industry provides a poignant lesson for consumers and businesses alike. 

For consumers, the rise of blind boxes is a reminder to be more aware of how and why we spend. The line between enjoyment and compulsion can blur easily when anticipation itself becomes the product. We need to know how to recognise the emotional pull behind each purchase and separate not just between needs and wants but also evaluating if our wants are driven by the desire for the product itself or simply just to follow the trend. Setting intentional budgets for non-essential spending and taking time to carefully deliberate our purchases can be small but meaningful ways to stay grounded. This is not to reject the joy that blind boxes or any other purchase may bring, but to ensure that our joy does not become part of a larger addiction cycle.

Long queues outside Pop Mart stores are an international experience. This one is in Barcelona. Image credits: Pop Mart

Meanwhile, businesses ought to analyse the blind box trend to truly understand what the market needs and thrives on.

Firstly, the blind box market has exemplified the utility of psychological economics and how marketing can be targeted to different innate psychological systems to elicit the necessary response – of course only done in an ethical manner.

Secondly, the market has allowed us to understand the power of collaboration. While it is ideal to create a unique product all on your own, learning how to leverage on pre-existing consumer bases from other brands through collaborations can help open doors to future purchases. Sometimes, all we need is that one chance to prove to consumers our worth.

Finally, at the heart of the blind box economy, businesses need to understand that what makes a successful product is how we speak to our consumers. Blind boxes are really just toys, but through re-looking and re-packaging toys into nostalgic icons and the experience of joy, we turn buying toys into buying joy, instantly enhancing its value in consumers eyes. 

Today, blind boxes are not just products. They are a quintessential part of our culture and a case study in modern marketing, psychology and social behaviour. They remind us that in a consumer-driven world, the value of a product lies not only in what it is but also in how it makes us feel, turning anticipation into engagement. So the next time you walk past a blind box shop, do not look at them simply as a blind box shop, but remember that their existence proves that with the right mix of psychology and a consumer focused strategy, even the simplest items can become a defining concept for a big business.

References

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2. Bharade, A. (2025, June 20). Pop Mart stock is down after China issued a warning on blind boxes. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/pop-mart-stock-down-china-warning-blind-box-labubu-monsters-2025-6

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4. Chiang, S. (2025, June 16). Who Started Blind Boxes? The Origins of the Mystery Toy Craze. SWITTS. https://www.switts.com.sg/who-started-blind-boxes/

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6. Li, J., & Hall, C. (2025, August 20). Pop Mart sees revenue hitting over $4 bln this year, to launch mini Labubus. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/pop-mart-sees-revenue-hitting-over-4-bln-this-year-launch-mini-labubus-2025-08-20/

7. Tse, A. (2023, March 24). Diving into Blind Box Culture. Generasian. https://generasian.blog/2023/03/24/diving-into-blind-box-culture/

8. Wang, X., & Jin, B. (2025, June 20). Mangka manghe nali "wuju wusu" [How Can Blind Boxes and Blind Cards Be “Unrestricted”]. People’s Daily. https://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/attachement/202506/20/1ba98a62-1b28-48e6-8b0f-c1247ed48d8f.pdf