When The Trump Card Doesn't Win

This article is co-authored by Lai Qian Huay, Lynn and Luo Xuhong.

In 2025, the world found itself once again caught in the maelstrom of Donald Trump’s presidency. His second term began with all the hallmarks of the first - combative trade policy, open disdain for allies, and rhetoric untethered from diplomatic convention. In Canada, Trump’s policies took on an almost theatrical edge; renewed tariffs, threats to annex Canadian land “as a joke,” and a general rewriting of America’s role in the global world order. Australia, while not directly between America’s crosshairs, still felt the geopolitical turbulence echoing across the Pacific. 

In Canada, the resignation of a weary Justin Trudeau left the Liberals adrift. Mark Carney, a former central banker with the Bank of England as well as the Bank of Canada, stepped into Trudeau’s shoes with a 20 point disadvantage against their strongest opposition - the Conservatives. Standing in the Liberals’ way to re-election was Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who spent years sounding alarm bells about a disgraced and “broken” Canada, and promising sweeping, Trump-style reforms. 

In Australia, the scene was different but no less dramatic. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, seeking a second term, faced Peter Dutton, whose campaign bore unmistakable Trumpian tones: anti-immigration rhetoric, vows to weaken the deep state, and appeals to fear and grievance.

The result? Both Carney’s Liberals and Albanese’s Labor have bagged a decisive victory in their respective elections - a clear mandate by the electorate in the ability of the incumbents to govern in times of uncertainty. In the clearest sign that Trumpism was a dangerous game to play, the opposition leaders lost their own seats. As the dust settles, let’s conduct a post-mortem of what exactly went wrong for Poilievre and Dutton. 

Pragmatism over Populism 

Incumbent PM and leader of the Labor Party Albanese started election campaigning in March virtually neck to neck with Coalition. He deflected criticism over Labor’s economic performance in his first term and rolled out a spending spree to tackle cost-of-living concerns. Crucially, Albanese steered clear of major policy reform (unlike Coalition’s strange announcement to build nuclear power plants) and portrayed the image of a crisis-tested government ready to restore discipline and order in politics.     

In contrast, confusion characterised Coalition’s campaign strategy. Dutton’s decision to focus on outer suburb seats (which were mostly held by Labor incumbents) was attributed to the misguided belief that working-class votes could offset Coalition losses in heartland seats that flipped to independents (Teals) in the previous election. Campaigning in the shadows of Trump certainly did not help Dutton either - as examined below, the Trump factor is seen as the final straw that pushed voters to hand Labor one of its largest victories ever.  

Image credit: The Sydney Morning Herald

Albanese’s Labor built its campaign around tackling the cost-of-living crisis, an issue that remains the priority for most voters. Key features included a series of tax cuts, medicine subsidies and 1.2 million new homes (of which 100,000 will be set aside exclusively for first-time home buyers). In response to the shock announcement of 10% tariffs on an old ally, Albanese responded with a firm hand by rolling out measures to support impacted industries. This proved key to shaping voters’ perceptions later on. 

As stock markets around the world plunged in the wake of pandemonium unleashed by Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, millions of Australians watched with horror as their retirement savings took a hit from the economic chaos. In such trying times, Albanese’s promises of order in a mainstream government seem to appeal to broad swathes of voters. It also cemented the swing from Coalition to Labor as voters eventually expressed their preference for a steady hand over culture wars, as detailed below.   

In Trump’s Shadows

It did not help that Dutton’s policy proposals bore an uncanny resemblance to Trump despite Coalition’s claims otherwise. Plans that involved scaling back the public service, slashing roles in the education department and axing DEI-related jobs were eerily similar to proposals offered by Musk’s (in)famous DOGE. 

In another move echoing White House sentiments, Dutton has lambasted major news outlets ABC and Guardian Australia, labelling them as “hate media”. Their supposed transgression? Editorials that implied Coalition was far from securing a victory. 

A Coalition Government will restore a curriculum that teaches the core fundamentals in our classrooms. A curriculum that cultivates critical thinking, responsible citizenship, and common sense. ~Dutton

While Albanese’s Labor outlined proposals to tackle bread and butter issues, Dutton leaned into a now-familiar culture war with campaign promises in March to rewrite the “woke” school curriculum. That was one step too far, as Dutton eventually walked back on the promise 2 days before the election. This wasn’t the only policy Dutton has flip-flopped on either: he abandoned plans to cut net migration and a ban on remote work for government employees. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Dutton guessed in a Seven News interview that a carton of 12 eggs cost $4.20 while Albanese gave $7. The correct answer was more than $8. 

If the parallels to Trump still aren’t clear enough, Coalition’s shadow minister for government efficiency Jacinta Nampijinpa Price declared that the Liberals would “make Australia great again” at a Perth rally, before later clarifying that the slogan was a mere slip of the tongue. The story takes a stranger turn, as a picture of her wearing a MAGA hat emerges on social media a day later. 

As markets whipsawed and local sentiment turned against Trump in the early days of April, Coalition finally realised that their leader’s likeliness to the US President was more liability than asset. The closing days of the campaign saw Dutton attempting to distance himself from Trump in part by claiming that he had never met Trump in person. 

Labor wins in a historic landslide, handing a particularly scathing defeat to Coalition, whose leader Dutton lost his own seat in Brisbane’s outer suburbs. Image credit: The West

The End of Another Trudeau Era

The Canadian Liberal Party started the 2025 federal elections on a backfoot. Then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had gone from the golden boy of progressive politics to the symbol of a fatigued Liberal establishment. After 9 years in power, his approval ratings sagged under the weight of rising dissatisfaction over two dominant domestic concerns: immigration and the cost of living.

Trudeau resigns. Image credit: BBC

While Trudeau had championed Canada’s humanitarian reputation by maintaining high immigration targets (until October 2024), critics argued that the country’s infrastructure hadn’t kept pace. A growing perception that newcomers were straining housing, healthcare, and transit systems began to chip away at public patience, particularly in urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver.

At the same time, soaring rents and inflation (reaching a 40-year high in 2022) continued to squeeze the middle class, fueling anxieties that the government was out of touch with ordinary Canadians. These pressures, while not entirely Trudeau’s fault, crystallized into a broader sentiment of exhaustion. Even supporters who once rallied behind his vision of inclusivity and openness began asking if it was time for someone more technocratic. 

The Liberal Party’s pivot to Mark Carney reflected this shift. Carney, with his pedigree as a former Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, projected calm confidence. His election as the next Liberal leader signaled that the Liberals understood that the era of bold progressive ambition had given way to one of pragmatic resilience. 

His appointment also helped blunt one of Poilievre’s strongest attacks: that the Liberals were incompetent economic stewards. With Carney at the helm, the Liberals could reassert credibility in fiscal policy while still defending progressive social values, a blend that would prove decisive in winning over centrist voters unnerved by Trumpism and skeptical of Poilievre’s populism.

Populism, Interrupted

Mark Carney emerges victorious from the Liberal Party’s internal elections, and opinion polls make voters’ approval of the new Liberal leader extremely apparent. Image credit: CBC News

Carney entered the race with a 20-point deficit, facing a resurgent Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre - a combative populist who had spent years with the slogan “Canada is broken”. Poilievre’s messaging resonated with those angry about inflation, housing prices, and pandemic-era government excess. But by March 2025, the geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically.

For many Canadians, Trump’s tariffs, withdrawal of America from several bilateral defense agreements, and threats of annexing Canadian land, was national humiliation. Carney seized the moment. He framed the election as a choice between a “steady hand in a time of storms” and “reckless division at home.” He pledged to stand up to Trump, stabilize markets, and protect Canadian sovereignty. 

Meanwhile, Poilievre tried to toe a delicate line. His previous praise of Trump was now a liability. He told Trump to “knock it off”, but struggled to articulate how he would manage an aggressive White House. His campaign's tone: anti-media, anti-central bank, and anti-government, suddenly felt dissonant in a time when Canadians wanted reassurance and unity.

The results of the 2025 federal election speak for themselves. The Liberals surged to a majority, while Poilievre not only lost the election and his 20-point lead, he also lost his own seat. While the Canadian electorate briefly flirted with populism, when faced with an existential external threat, they reverted to institutional trust and economic competence. Carney’s unique profile allowed him to weaponize Trump’s chaos against Poilievre, painting him as ideologically aligned with a foreign bully. The “winds of fate” of Trump’s return paradoxically saved the Liberals by giving them an enemy to rally against. 

The Winds of Fate Blow Both Ways

Canada and Australia faced the same headwinds of economic uncertainty, aggressive American foreign policy, rising disinformation and polarisation. However, both demonstrated that while populism is a fire that can be stoked, crisis sharpens public judgement - and voters will predictably retreat to leaders who offer competence, moderation, and trust in their institutions. In that sense, the candidates who aligned themselves too closely with Trump found themselves unmoored when the political winds shifted, lacking a clear direction of their own once Trump’s appeal began to fade.

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